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Monday, August 12, 2013

Other Reasons I Love Tasty Trade



I've blogged extensively on Tasty Trade's philosophy of selling volatility and playing the probabilities of being in the money, and probabilities of success. Such information is invaluable to an options seller, especially if you are contrarian.



But there are other reasons that Tasty Trade appeals to me so much.

1. Trade Small, Trade Often. This mantra has big payoffs as my major losses in options have been when I was in too many contracts, and too few trades. (the all my eggs in one basket problem). When you operate with a limited fund, it is tempting to go for the big Apple trade or something similar, but the smart thing is to do a LOT of small trades with (appropriate) varied strategies (depending on the volatility and underlying), and keep a lot of trades going all the time. It's a numbers game.

2. It's a Numbers Game. This is a very exciting area of options. If you flip a coin, you have a 50 - 50 chance of it being heads, and a 50 - 50 chance of it being tails. If you are a statistician or/and mathematician, you will be familiar with random walk market theory. For us novices, Wiki tells us that the random walk hypothesis is a financial theory stating that stock market prices evolve according to a random walk and thus cannot be predicted. Think about that! If it cannot be predicted then WHY are all of these people learning chart indicators and chart oscillators and the hundreds of variations on chart predictions. It's because (obviously) that they believe that the market CAN be predicted, and believe that following the trend will produce results. Tasty Trades' research team has done enough analysis (see their entire archive of "Market Measures" videos) to prove to me otherwise. I'm in the random walk corner.

3. Standard Deviations. The volatility of an option is by definition equal to a 1 standard deviation expected move. So if I sell a put 1 standard deviation below the current stock price, it has an 84% probability of expiring out of the money. That kind of information gets me a lot more confident than the possibility of a trend continuing. As I said, a numbers game.

4. More Risk? Better Probability of Success! The TRUTH about naked options is inspiring. One would have you believe that you will lose your mind, give away the farm, and let the Devil take your soul if you sell (short) a naked put or call. UNLIMITED RISK~!~ the options class teachers warn. They have everyone so scared that all the real successful trading is kept in the hands of professionals who KNOW that the brokers estimate your risk on every trade, and the amount of margin they hold for your naked options is the actual risk. It is not unlimited. Indeed it is quite limited. And the more margin it takes, the higher the risk. The higher the risk, the more likely the trade will be successful. Unless of course you are an IDIOT and don't know how to trade at all. Tasty Trade has videos on just what the mathematical truths are about selling naked options and strangles vs. selling defined risk trades (like iron condors and credit verticals). The naked strategies are incredibly more successful, historically, over any reasonable period of time.

5. Underlyings that Entertain me One of the bonuses of trading the Tasty Trade way is that their philosophy does not work unless you use underlyings that have high volume, high volatility prospects, and good premium. This means that selling options on staid little stocks that trades less a million shares per day is a waste of your time. It also means that I get to trade Apple, Priceline, Google, Chipotle, Bidu, etc. ALL fun, sexy, and rich premium underlyings. If you want to enjoy trading, keep it interesting. if you buy LEAPS on Proctor and Gamble expiring in 2015, you can go to sleep until then for all the action you'll get. To say nothing of the loss of real income on more volatile underlyings. Selling options is the only way to go in my opinion.

If any or all of this sounds crazy to you, and you think you know options, I urge you to tune in to TastyTrade.com on your computer, take a look through their archives, (ALL FREE) and watch the live shows as well as the teaching videos. You'll thank me some day.

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